FTSE 100 and S&P 500 earnings: What the latest forecasts mean for client portfolios
AJ Bell's Russ Mould sets out why earnings upgrades are continuing on both sides of the Atlantic, and where the key valuation and risk divergences now sit.
Earnings momentum remains a central consideration for advisers building or reviewing equity allocations. Russ Mould at AJ Bell examines consensus forecasts pointing to record aggregate profits for both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 in 2026 and 2027, with analysts continuing to revise estimates upward rather than trim them as the year progresses. The article looks at why the FTSE 100's forward multiples of 13 times and 12 times 2026 and 2027 earnings sit in a different category from the S&P 500's 23 times and 20 times, and what that gap means for relative risk. It also examines the structural question underpinning US forecasts: whether AI-driven productivity gains justify earnings growth rates running well above the 40-year compound annual rate of 6.7%, and what the Solow Paradox suggests about the downside case if they do not.
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